A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
